US–Iran War 2026: Week One Briefing — Strait of Hormuz Closure and the Global Energy Crisis
Date : 2026-03-07
Reading : 347
The outbreak of a joint US-Israel military campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026, has rapidly escalated into a regional war, triggering a severe global energy crisis. Iranian retaliatory strikes have heavily targeted Gulf energy infrastructure and commercial shipping, effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz. This chokepoint disruption has stranded millions of barrels of crude oil, resulting in a historic 28-35% weekly surge in global energy prices.
Overview of Week 1: Key Conflict Events (Feb 28 - Mar 6)
The first week of the conflict was characterized by aggressive US-Israel decapitation and degradation strikes, met by massive Iranian asymmetrical retaliation aimed at internationalizing the economic cost.
* Initial Escalation (Feb 28 - Mar 2): Following US-Israel strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, Iran launched over 1,600 drones and missiles. Strikes hit major Gulf energy facilities, including Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery and Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex, forcing temporary shutdowns and a *force majeure* declaration by Qatar.
* Strait of Hormuz Closure (Mar 2 - Mar 6): By March 2, the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed to maritime traffic. Daily oil flows plummeted from a pre-war average of ~25.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) to just 1.0 mb/d by March 6. Over 200 tankers are currently stranded, accumulating more than 76 million barrels of unsold crude.
* Attacks on Commercial & Diplomatic Targets (Mar 3 - Mar 6): Iran expanded attacks to US embassies/consulates in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. By late week, commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the northern Indian Ocean, including the US Navy tanker *Stena Imperative*, suffered direct hits and fires.
Analysis of War's Impact on Energy Prices
The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has removed approximately 20% of global oil/gas flows from the market, creating a massive supply shock. This has led to the largest weekly gains in oil prices since 2020.
* Crude Benchmark Surges:
* Brent Crude: Rose from $72.87 to $93.32/bbl (+28.1%), spiking as high as $94.51.
* WTI (US Light Crude): Rose from $67.02 to $91.39/bbl (+36.4%), the largest weekly gain since 1983.
* Dubai Crude: Rose from $68.40 to $89.31/bbl (+30.6%), with cash premiums hitting the highest levels since 2018.
* Shanghai Crude Futures: Surged 50.3% to 753 CNY/ton.
* Geopolitical Economic Divide: The price shock is disproportionately affecting highly dependent Asian importers (China, India, Japan, South Korea) and Europe, where gas prices have spiked by 66%. Conversely, the US is somewhat insulated as a net exporter, though domestic consumers face rising pump prices.
Week 2 Forecast & Subsequent Impacts on Energy Prices (Mar 7 - Mar 13)
Based on current battlefield intelligence (including ISW assessments) and market dynamics, the conflict is entering a critical phase of attrition that will continue to dictate energy market volatility.
* Military Developments: US-Israel operations will likely intensify, targeting Iranian internal security (Basij/police) to accelerate regime collapse. While Iran's ballistic missile capabilities have been significantly degraded (with launch rates dropping), Tehran is expected to pivot its retaliation toward drone swarms and cyberattacks against Gulf energy grids. Furthermore, a unified Gulf coalition (led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE) may shift from a defensive posture to conducting offensive strikes.
* Impact on Energy Prices:
* Continued Blockade & Upward Pressure: The risk of extended delays in reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains the primary driver of market anxiety. As long as commercial shipping is threatened by drone and cyber capabilities, the strait will remain impassable.
* The $100/bbl Threshold: If the conflict and Hormuz closure are not resolved within the next 2 to 4 weeks, global crude prices are highly likely to breach the $100/bbl mark, pushing vulnerable Asian and European markets toward recession.
* Market Outlook: The current base case among analysts assumes a 3-4 week timeline to de-escalation. For Week 2, energy prices will remain highly elevated and volatile, reacting aggressively to any news of infrastructure damage or diplomatic interventions by nations like Oman and China.
Download & Media Access
Click the PDF download link under “Related Topics” to access the presentation of this report.
Click this link to watch the YouTube video.
About HDIN Research Profile:
HDIN Research focuses on providing market consulting services. As an independent third-party consulting firm, it is committed to providing in-depth market research and analysis reports.
Website: www.hdinresearch.com
E-mail: sales@hdinresearch.com
Overview of Week 1: Key Conflict Events (Feb 28 - Mar 6)
The first week of the conflict was characterized by aggressive US-Israel decapitation and degradation strikes, met by massive Iranian asymmetrical retaliation aimed at internationalizing the economic cost.
* Initial Escalation (Feb 28 - Mar 2): Following US-Israel strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, Iran launched over 1,600 drones and missiles. Strikes hit major Gulf energy facilities, including Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery and Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex, forcing temporary shutdowns and a *force majeure* declaration by Qatar.
* Strait of Hormuz Closure (Mar 2 - Mar 6): By March 2, the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed to maritime traffic. Daily oil flows plummeted from a pre-war average of ~25.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) to just 1.0 mb/d by March 6. Over 200 tankers are currently stranded, accumulating more than 76 million barrels of unsold crude.
* Attacks on Commercial & Diplomatic Targets (Mar 3 - Mar 6): Iran expanded attacks to US embassies/consulates in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. By late week, commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the northern Indian Ocean, including the US Navy tanker *Stena Imperative*, suffered direct hits and fires.
Analysis of War's Impact on Energy Prices
The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has removed approximately 20% of global oil/gas flows from the market, creating a massive supply shock. This has led to the largest weekly gains in oil prices since 2020.
* Crude Benchmark Surges:
* Brent Crude: Rose from $72.87 to $93.32/bbl (+28.1%), spiking as high as $94.51.
* WTI (US Light Crude): Rose from $67.02 to $91.39/bbl (+36.4%), the largest weekly gain since 1983.
* Dubai Crude: Rose from $68.40 to $89.31/bbl (+30.6%), with cash premiums hitting the highest levels since 2018.
* Shanghai Crude Futures: Surged 50.3% to 753 CNY/ton.
* Geopolitical Economic Divide: The price shock is disproportionately affecting highly dependent Asian importers (China, India, Japan, South Korea) and Europe, where gas prices have spiked by 66%. Conversely, the US is somewhat insulated as a net exporter, though domestic consumers face rising pump prices.
Week 2 Forecast & Subsequent Impacts on Energy Prices (Mar 7 - Mar 13)
Based on current battlefield intelligence (including ISW assessments) and market dynamics, the conflict is entering a critical phase of attrition that will continue to dictate energy market volatility.
* Military Developments: US-Israel operations will likely intensify, targeting Iranian internal security (Basij/police) to accelerate regime collapse. While Iran's ballistic missile capabilities have been significantly degraded (with launch rates dropping), Tehran is expected to pivot its retaliation toward drone swarms and cyberattacks against Gulf energy grids. Furthermore, a unified Gulf coalition (led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE) may shift from a defensive posture to conducting offensive strikes.
* Impact on Energy Prices:
* Continued Blockade & Upward Pressure: The risk of extended delays in reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains the primary driver of market anxiety. As long as commercial shipping is threatened by drone and cyber capabilities, the strait will remain impassable.
* The $100/bbl Threshold: If the conflict and Hormuz closure are not resolved within the next 2 to 4 weeks, global crude prices are highly likely to breach the $100/bbl mark, pushing vulnerable Asian and European markets toward recession.
* Market Outlook: The current base case among analysts assumes a 3-4 week timeline to de-escalation. For Week 2, energy prices will remain highly elevated and volatile, reacting aggressively to any news of infrastructure damage or diplomatic interventions by nations like Oman and China.
Download & Media Access
Click the PDF download link under “Related Topics” to access the presentation of this report.
Click this link to watch the YouTube video.
About HDIN Research Profile:
HDIN Research focuses on providing market consulting services. As an independent third-party consulting firm, it is committed to providing in-depth market research and analysis reports.
Website: www.hdinresearch.com
E-mail: sales@hdinresearch.com